2026 Richmond BizSense Economic Forecast Event

Sarah Paxton
Co-Owner & President
LaDiff

2026 economic confidence prediction – 7.5

Sarah’s economic observations for 2025

– DOGE layoffs and government shutdown time hit tons of customers in their discretionary spending

– tariffs are hitting the American people hardest, customs is in chaos, items are staying 3-4 weeks vs. 1-2 days like before

– customers place an order and by the time it’s fulfilled, the pricing has to change based on government policies that have shifted

– in one week a small business they work with had 2 of 3 suppliers change their pricing by 50%

– they have had to cherry-pick different vendors and suppliers

– Richmond area market has more renters, who are not always going to invest in their spaces the same as homeowners

Local market conditions, not as many folks selling because of rates or valuations of homes they could move into. New homeowners tend to be great customers and there just aren’t as many

Supreme Court is hearing the case of over 1000 companies seeking refunds from over $130 billion in tariff revenue already collected. 

What needs to happen for 2026 to be a good year?

????be involved and aware locally and globally, we need more citizen participation and we need to stay knowledgeable and educated on what’s happening in the world and how it affects our businesses and communities.

• Richmond Business Climate: our diversity and generosity.

Dennis Hatchett
President and Chief Executive Officer
Feed More

2026 economic confidence prediction – 7 overall, 10 for Central Virginia

Dennis’ economic observations for 2025

– government shutdown paused training of staff

– small % of the food support from the federal government hasn’t been reliable

– Governor Youngkin allocated an additional $1 million in state funds to area food banks to offset the greater needs with federal government pulling back

– often restaurants have been able to donate more but their margins have gotten squeezed as the cost of food and production have continued to rise

– tariffs / inflation has hit hard, local retailers are navigating rising costs and not able to donate as much

– 1 in 9 parens is food insecure / 1 in 6 children is food insecure, sadly food insecurity often shows up with other life events or challenges that have been compounded in recent years for many Central Virginians

What needs to happen for 2026 to be a good year?
– would love to see more stability in the federal administration / clear rules of engagement

– continued community involvement, giving of time and $

– folks staying involved and active 

• Richmond Business Climate: our people and our generosity

Rob Long
Founder | Entrepreneur
Bar West, Vita Pure, River City Roll

2026 economic confidence prediction – 7

Rob’s economic observations for 2025

– prior to 2025, had YoY growth, but that stopped in 2025

– with food costs sometimes doubling, they lost money on some dishes

– has been able to rely on steady corporate outing spending in the past but that wasn’t happening this year – outside of the 2025 holiday season there was a bit of a corporate spending rebound

– nobody except him, the owner can afford to live in the neighborhood where RCR is – Scotts Addition

– VitaPure – as a high-end brand has not been affected. As an ultra-premium brand it has held steady and has been growing.

 – tons of uncertainty in corporate spending and personal spending year-long, monthly or recurring events or parties went away, the trend is that younger folks are not drinking as much and being more discerning with their spending as the next generation of consumer

– the premium beers are suffering – needing to offer more basics

– burdensome to plan a menu when pricing changes so often and so drastically at the supplier – hard to predict and not sure what is even possible to pass along to the consumer

What needs to happen for 2026 to be a good year?
– if people can get more comfortable with the chaos and noise

– the volatile environment might lend itself to bar sales going up

– people have to be smarter and change how they do business to flow with the volatility

• Richmond Business Climate: dynamic folks drawn to Richmond, overall very supportive people who want local biz to thrive

Danna Markland
Chief Executive Officer
Home Building Association of Richmond

2026 economic confidence prediction – 4

Danna’s economic observations for 2025

– 2025 rent stabilizations have lead to a higher vacancy rate

– prices on homes for sale and income levels are diverging at a rapid pace

– not enough inventory to make things more affordable and it’s leading to a housing crisis

– a healthy market is 300/month, RVA was at 196/month last fall

 – interest rates are creating a timing issue for some buyers and sellers

– affordability overall is creating a participation issue

– trades equity firms are coming in from the outside, buying a market position by underbidding local firms and making local firms lose business

– lots of uncertainty with the home building pipeline: builder capacity is constrained, inventory is not there, we’ve had decades of underbuilding and the supply is not replenished

2026 predictions
– rent is looking favorable

 – could see homebuilding drop off in ‘26

– do we want RVA to be a place where people can buy a home? If so, there needs to be more rezonings to allow for homebuilding

• Richmond Business Climate: our people make it a great place to do business

John Dickinson
Founding Partner & Managing Director
Dickinson Williams & Company

2026 economic confidence prediction – 7 nationally, higher locally

John’s economic observations for 2025

– lots of uncertainty and wait and see from clients

– there was a strong pipeline in 2026, many folks making peace with or adjusting to the chaos

– interesst ratess: lenders are active, but more cautious, rates have plateaued

– volatility leads to fewer deals because many of the new opportunities are psychologically based

– many employees are hurting, needing 2-3 jobs, can’t make ends meet

– hot sectors: mostly B2B vs. B2C, multi-site trades like plumbing, roofing, maintenance or repair, AI, technology, airspace and defense

2026 predictions
– lower interest rates potentially on the horizon

 – would love to see less volatility but don’t realistically see that happening – but the folks in the US are resilient so there’s a belief we will figure it out